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Paradigm Shift in India: Changing Indian Strategic Culture
Paradigm Shift in India: Changing Indian Strategic Culture
In his podcast “Perspectives with Dr. Cheema “ Mr Qamar Cheema highlighted that India has invited Pakistan to the upcoming SCO summit and there is speculation that India will also send another invitation to Prime Minister Shahbaz Sharif. However, despite these developments External Affairs Minister Dr S Jaishankar has targeted Pakistan for sponsoring terrorism and said that our problem is that Pakistan is our neighbor and unfortunately one can choose its relatives but not neighbors. But the real question is does Pakistan really understand what Dr Jaishankar is bringing up and what is the concept of a new India and what is the paradigm shift?
Dr. Cheema said that if you listen to Dr J Shankar he believes that strategic culture needs to come from history, culture and values. According to him Lord Krishna and Hanuman were the greatest diplomats in the world. While explaining strategic patience, he gave the example of Lord Krishna who forgave Shishupal several times. Mr Jaishankar compared Kurukshetra, where the Mahabharata war took place between the Kauravas and Pandavas as "Multipolar India. "He compared “strategic deception “to Lord Krishna for creating the illusion of a sunset.
Dr Cheema lamented that do people in Pakistan really understand what these things are and how India is incorporating history, language, culture, religion and values in society and what is the concept of new India and the paradigm shift in India? Unfortunately, the people of Pakistan are so much busy with internal rifts that they have no idea about these concepts which the current regime in India is talking about.
Dr Cheema highlighted that the government of India is working on some important points.
1-India will be a developed country in the next 25 years. This includes increased per capita income and GDP growth. He stated that India is growing at a rapid pace and in the next 25 years what India will do is linked to the political stability of the country.
2- India believes that they have to liberate themselves from the colonial mindset. For instance, on a recent BBC documentary, there was huge criticism by the entire of India. But the key concern is how this will happen and how people will come out of this.
3- Cultural and Heritage. India is taking pride in its values and culture and this will put them in a stronger position. However, in other words, they are trying to bring duties and responsibilities to the people of their country.
4 India is thinking from the religious lens and not thinking from the nationalist lens only they are taking all other things into consideration. They are talking about non-alignment movement, strategic patience, and diplomacy and believe that their religion has always preached this message.
The current dispensation in India is trying to make India different from the previous governments and they believe that this is a paradigm shift and this is the new India. Many people believe that they are instilling and incorporating so much religion into diplomacy, politics and state architecture. This is how they have inculcated their religion.
Dr Cheema mentioned that if I would go with the ethos of democracy any political party when they come into power have the capability to change several things if they are supported by the people. If India wants to be a Hindu state then it must be a Hindu state or if India wants to be a secular state it must be secular but people have to decide.
Dr Cheema compared this with Pakistan and said that there is confusion in Pakistan that the whole Pakistan wants the implementation of Shariah but no one has ever voted for the Mullas. However, India is changing at a rapid pace and the current government in India is trying to portray itself as simple but actually, it is interpreting India's history in statecraft. Dr Cheema said that people believe that India is making mistakes in a similar manner that Pakistan has made; to run the country in the name of religion.
Dr Cheema stressed that this is a very important transformation and it is a top-down transformation. People are buying it because people are already syncing with culture history and values. People are also drawing analogies with Pakistan as it is a Muslim state and it has made Islamic Constitution to run the country.
Let India be the way India wants to be because at the end of the day that is what the people of India want to be. But primarily they are connecting it to the colonial mindset but Modi cannot do this without economic progress, without majority support and without global acceptance because all these things will give him the power to rule the country and manage the country, he concluded.
Pakistan shall focus on Economy to keep Kashmir issue Alive says Ambassador Chaudhry
Dr. Qamar Cheema interviewed Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry on his podcast “Dr. Qamar Cheema Show ". During the podcast he asked that it has been noticed that Pakistan does not raise the issue of Kashmir at various forums for example in recent visits of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister to Saudi Arabia and UAE there was no mention of Kashmir, what do you think that Pakistan has lost its space in regional calculus or Pakistan’s financial compultions have forced Pakistan to stay out of this or the narrative that we will not let India become the regional policeman is becoming difficult for us? What do you think about how difficult it is to keep the Kashmir issue alive?
Ambassador Chaudhary said that Pakistan has always taken a firm stance on the issue of Kashmir. Our leadership always raised this issue of Kashmir at every forum. But this is also a reality that the issue of Kashmir cannot be raised at every forum because the nature of every forum is different. He referred that recent visits of the Prime Minister and Foreign Minister were related to the resources and economy in these visits the issue of Kashmir cannot be discussed.
Ambassador Chaudhary believes that the Issue of Kashmir has become a bone of contention because of the stubbornness of India. There were two reasons behind India's stubbornness one was the Partition plan and the other was UN resolutions which they are not ready to accept. With time India has become an economic giant and it has become powerful after this world has started looking at India with a different lens. Now they consider the Kashmir issue as a bilateral issue between the two nations and they do not raise their voices anymore.
Geopolitical trends in the world have changed and India has become successful in suppressing the right of self-determination of the people of Kashmir and we are still unable to stop it. Our policy towards Kashmir is subject to a final settlement and our sentiments and stance towards Kashmir are still the same but at this stage, India has had some edge for some time and no one is stopping them from doing atrocities in Kashmir because of its economic stability. Pakistan should focus on its economic policies in order to emerge as a strong nation and take a firm stance on issues like Kashmir and keep it alive.
Pakistan US Relations does not revolve around only Security says Former Ambassador
Dr Qamar Cheema spoke with Ambassador Chaudhry at his Podcast Dr Qamar Cheema Show that what do you think after the withdrawal of the US from Afghanistan the relationship between Pakistan and US has become downgraded because relationship was based on security needs and how do you see the future of Pak-US relations?
Ambassador Chaudhry was of the view that relations between Pakistan and US are not limited to the security dimensions or univocal. He said that Pakistan's relations with America are based on broader foundations. There have been ups and downs in the relations. Sometimes government-to-government relations are low or weak but people-to-people relations have always remained very strong. He mentioned that number of Pakistani students are in American universities, in various fields of information technology and the US is still the biggest trading partner of Pakistan. He said that for ups and downs in the relations, we cannot always blame the US these were our own decisions which were wrong and we are facing the consequences.
Ambassador Chaudhry said that in Afghanistan the US has its own aims and agendas and they needed help because the US cannot defeat the Taliban without the support of Pakistan. After years of war and infighting, they were able to bring the Taliban to the table and they decided to make an interim government in Afghanistan and they left. The mistake they made in Afghanistan was the abrupt withdrawal. But when we look at the situation through the lens of the Taliban they are claiming that they have defeated Russia before and now they have defeated Americans and they can defeat anyone.
He said that TTP and TTA are two sides of one coin and we should have thought if we do not want the same rule of Shariah in our country why do we want it for Afghanistan? He said that Pakistan never thought that when the Taliban will come into power in Afghanistan they will not demand similar things in Pakistan. He further said that the Taliban have promised three things and they are not fulfilling a single one of them; interim government, women's education and the spread of terrorism.
Just because of this world is not recognizing them because they believe that Afghanistan will become a hub of terrorism, ISKP, TTP, ETIM, and IMU. The world is blaming all this happened just because of the abrupt withdrawal of the US and West. Ambassador Chaudhry was of the view that regional consensus and support of the international community are needed to deal with the issue Terrorism is an international issue and it cannot be handled single-handedly.
Who takes the lead in Pakistan’s Foreign Policy, GHQ, or Foreign Office?
Dr. Qamar Cheema interviewed Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry on his podcast " Dr. Qamar Cheema Show " and asked a question who takes lead in foreign policy and has dominance in foreign policy decision-making? Does Foreign Office take lead or GHQ?
Ambassador Aizaz Chaudhry said that this is a misconception among the Pakistani people and among various circles that all foreign policy-making is done by the foreign office. The same process is followed in the entire world for example in US State Department, Pentagon, CIA, Treasure and commerce and all departments take decisions unanimously and then they go to the national security council, and then the president of America takes a decision. Input is taken from everyone.
The same is the case with the Pakistan Foreign Office. Foreign Office takes inputs from all the institutions and then decisions are taken. GHQ plays a role in dealing with issues related to security. Security concerns in Pakistan are very high and Pakistan is sandwiched between India and Afghanistan. The security aspect is always dominant and it will not right to say that only Foreign Office should take the lead and decisions. GHQ should not indulge in the diplomatic affairs of the country. Ambassador Chaudhry suggested that your face should be Foreign Office and inputs should be taken from all the institutions. He said that in the case of India, all the decisions are guided by intelligence and other stakeholders but the Foreign Office always takes the lead.
Sajid Tarar on Elite Capture, Protests in Gilgit & Gawadar: Pakistan’s War of Survival
Sajid Tarar on Elite Capture, Protests in Gilgit & Gawadar: Pakistan’s War of Survival
Dr Cheema hosted an interview with American Businessman Sajid Tarar
During the interview, Dr. Qamar Cheema asked about the current downfall of PTI keeping in mind the current position of the PTI in Local Bodies Elections in Karachi, what do you think Imran Khan is only a social media leader or on the ground he has lost the control ?
Sajid Tarar while responding to Dr Cheema’s question said that there are two things Imran Khan was not supported or backed by the Army this time. Secondly, social media and politics are two different things Imran Khan should realize that people with him are very good at tweeting and sending messages on Social media they do not go for voting and votes are given by the old people. Along with this, the person who was contesting for the position of Mayor has also lost the elections and along with this Imran has lost from Hyderabad and dado also and this is a lesson for the nation. Now Imran Khan is saying that these elections were rigged and the irony is that Imran Khan does not agree with the things which he does not like for example he called courts and the election commissions are dubious. He mentioned that at this stage Imran Khan is very confused and even the new COAS has refused to meet him.
Moreover, Imran Khan has two misunderstandings. He believes that after the desolation of the Punjab Assembly and KPK when they will go to the National Assembly and after promising PTI tickets to the people and breaking the people of PML N they will bring the establishment to its knees. This doesn't seem to be possible. It is a fact that he has a big ego and after 62 political gatherings and destroying the country now has decided to go back to the national assembly. Imran Khan should give some money to the country as people in Pakistan are dying of hunger and he is taking U-turn after U-turn.
He also said that people with dual citizenship also think that we have atomic assets and it is the world's responsibility to help us, But for how long? Now America is declining and they have chosen India against China. Secondly, it is busy in Ukraine and thirdly internal politics is chaotic we should not expect that America will help us.
He said that there is no law and order in the country. Target killings are happening at very petty issues and he referred to the firing in the Lahore bar association l, the firing at Kotla Hospital and the killing of Latif Afridi. He stressed that the current situation in Pakistan is very alarming and the country is on the verge of economic debt and no one is looking at this scenario. It is sad that the way the country is managed entire world is watching.
Dr Qamar Cheema raised a question at his Podcast that in Pakistan we often see political nepotism. Do you think our leaders have trapped the nation in it or our public like this? Secondly, the situation in peripheral Pakistan such as in Baluchistan and GB where protests are taking place and people like Hadayat Ur Rahman are beaten in Baluchistan and on the other side people sitting in Lahore and Karachi are ruling the country. What do you think will be the future? Do we and our next generation have to live like this?
He said that the foundation of political nepotism was laid down by Ayub Khan and it is deep-rooted and we cannot go out of this. People in Gilgit Baltistan and Baluchistan are suffering because they do not have food and nobody is bothered and Hadayat Ullah has very innocent demands. People of Balochistan are demanding that their women should not be disrespected and they should be given a pass in order to avoid the checking at crossing points. Instead of resolving these issues, they are arresting Hadayat Ullah Khan which is not the solution to the problem.
He further highlighted that unfortunately when you have been supported by the agencies people can do politics from London. Situations like this prevail in the country. Our political parties are busy with their own nasty politics. He mentioned that there used to be strong competition in Punjab but now the authority has been given to two people: Attah Ullah Tarar and Rana Sana. It has become a desire to listen to these people saying how we have taken Pakistan out of this economic crisis. At this stage, we need to set up factories and should make a niche for information technology and should teach our generation coding and educate the people.
We should be aware of the fact that people are leaving the country and how they can be stopped. He said that we compare ourselves with India but we should be aware of the fact their leaders are not running out of the country and do not shift to Landon. They have pride in living in the country and this is how their country is progressing. He said we should promote honor and dignity in our society. We should stay in our country and serve the nations. Our leaders should also stay in the country.
Dr. Qamar posed a question regarding the Chaudries taking over the PTI and what role they want to play. Sajid Tarar while Responding to this he said that in the past the PTI was scared of Chaudries and they have no choice except to take them to the party because they are unable to mend their relationship with the establishment. The numbers of people are trying to communicate. If Chaudhry take over PTI this will be the loss of PTI. Imran should think about what he is adjusting. The current situation of our country is quite grim and this is the fall of the society but this discourse has been normalized to the extent that no one considers it serious. He applauded that this is how Pakistan is running and the future is highly unpredictable.
Jihadi Factories and Global Embarrassment: One more Pakistani listed on UNSC Terror List
Jihadi Factories and Global Embarrassment: One more Pakistani listed on UNSC Terror List
In his podcast “Perspectives with Dr. Cheema " Dr Qamar Cheema said that China has withdrawn its hold of Abdul Rahman Makki at UNSC who was the Deputy Head of Lashkar e Taiba. China had blocked it because according to the UNSC resolutions 1267, 1989 and 2253 groups like Dagessh, Al Qaeda and all those who have been linked to these organisations were under the sanctions. He said that apparently China was holding on to it just because of Pakistan and it is believed that China has kept hold over it for three years and eight months. China has always stood with Pakistan but this is where China cannot stand with Pakistan.
He mentioned that Pakistan has been defamed globally just because of its leadership and leaders are responsible for the current state of affairs. Because at one side Pakistan was fighting against terrorism and on the other hand these people (terrorists) who were related to Kashmir were roaming around this concern has been raised several times that you can't divert your attention from them and you cannot tell the world that we are operating against them. In past, if we were giving them punishments our parliaments would have given a clear definition of Jihad.
India has taken these terrorists to UNSC and they have labelled Pakistan as terrorist but in Pakistan, we always sell this narrative that people have been killed and this damage has happened and these people were jihadist but the world does not know that these people were fighting in India or Afghanistan or what. However, India has portrayed Pakistan jihad as terrorism and our leaders are not even aware of this reality that how India is portraying them.
He said that both the military and civil leadership of the country are blaming each other and in reality and ultimately country and nation is facing the consequences. In Pakistan, interest groups are taking benefits and our establishment is taking advantage in the name of national security and national interest. They believe that ousting Nawaz Sharif and bringing Imran Khan to power is also a national interest. Keeping Hafiz Saeed and other leaders of Lashkar e Tayiba was also a national interest. Unfortunately, we are confused about defining our National Interest and who will define it.
In past when our national interest was India over Kashmir and nuclear deterrence nation stood up with the leadership. But now things have changed and inflation is at its peak. At this stage, our country should be a welfare state rather than the security state. By and large, we have forgotten the concept of the state and we have been exploited every time. He said that while leadership is busy in internal politics these people were taking advantage of it. He said that America is also happy with this that this leader Abdul Rahman R Makki has been labeled as a terrorist.
He stressed that Pakistan has a great role in protecting these leaders and their families who use to live with them in jails. Furthermore, How we have been defining our national interest and what we have done in the name of national interest is really alarming.
The concept of jihad was jeopardized and people have started killing people and which resulted in the weaponization of society. We created the drug and gun culture in the country then we realized the situation. Now America is aligning with Indians is rest of the world is saying whatever is happening is right and now Pakistan has to justify its position
Pakistan should thank China as it always helped Pakistan. We sent Hafiz Saeed to jail just because of the allegations from FATF Interestingly public in Pakistan doesn't know about this and this news will not be published in Pakistani media or the press. Because a wrong image of Jihad has been portrayed in Pakistan and they have been told that this good thing. But the reality is that people should be told that Jihad can be done by the state against a state not a group against a group. When you blur the definition and do not give importance to the nation such things happen.
In India and Bangladesh, there is also poverty but it doesn't mean that these states are involved in protecting such activities. He said that this is a moment when we should understand and realize these realities. This is high time when we should start thinking and planning that we are getting embarrassed in front of the international community there should be public discourse over jihad and it should be discussed in the media. He further said that dangers to the state should be discussed. We should come out of the dirty politics and should tell people about the real challenges and what are our future plans. He stressed that these things are of value and we should not forget our identity. He also mentioned that we should get rid of these terrorists in order to avoid international embarrassment in front of the UN and the world. We should clear it once and for all. The leadership should take a firm stance on it. The picture is bleak but one should not lose hope and this is how we will learn the lesson and find the direction.
The country has to pay a heavy price because the global system is holding you accountable.
Pakistan Air Force officer Wrote that India has gone far ahead from Pakistan
Dr Qamar Cheema Held an interview with Hamid Bashani
During the interview, he asked him that whenever we talk about India we are always very critical but now the trend seems to be changing and people are looking at things analytically. Similarly, Air Marshal of Pakistan Shahzad Chaudhry wrote in Express Tribune that India is becoming famous in the world not only because of its size but also because of its growing footprints in the world. We do not talk about this in Pakistan but when we look at it from a traditional lens Narinder Modi has introduced India as a brand to the whole world. What do you think that there is this realization in Pakistan that Pakistan and India's mismatch has started and things are getting out of the control of Pakistan and India has become relevant to the world?
While responding to this question Mr. Bashani said that it is a reality that India has been relevant throughout the decades in international politics even from the very beginning or right after the independence. Traditionally India has played a bigger role in international politics and especially during the Cold War. But unfortunately, this narrative is not given importance in Pakistan. Pakistan has a policy against India that cannot build a positive narrative about India in Pakistan. This policy is strictly maintained and civilians are not allowed to write about this narrative, these things are kept hidden from Pakistanis and India is portrayed as a very weak and poor country with a number of movements going on, Secondly, India is our enemy and we cannot have friendly ties with India. A similar narrative is portrayed in local newspapers. He was of the opinion that India is becoming a regional giant and we are feeding the wrong information into people's minds, especially the young generation. He said that the change will happen when this narrative is published in other newspapers as well and when we accept to look at India from a different angle and lens.
While responding to another important aspect of security and the growing Indian role in world politics, especially in the Indo-Pacific region and along with this Pakistan’s efforts to stop India from becoming a regional power he said that the strategy that Pakistan has adopted to align with small countries to undermine the influence of India but this did not happen because Pakistan declared Itself as a Middle Eastern country and it can be found in many American declassified documents. Pakistan has declared that it is historically ethnically and religiously part of the Middle East and it has repeatedly asked the US to make it part of Middle Eastern politics by doing so Pakistan wanted to lead the Middle Eastern region. Pakistan has signed Bagdad pacts and many agreements because Pakistan was not ready to accept the supremacy of India in this region.
Pakistan created the fake concept of Ummet e Muslimah and on the basis of this it has separated itself regionally, ethnically and culturally from India and India has adopted the same policy. India has shown this aggression in meetings of SAARC and this aggression was the key reason behind the failure of SAARC. Moreover, Pakistan has been ousted from different conferences Global South Conference is one of the examples to make Pakistan realize but this was not even mentioned in the Pakistani newspaper. Because we are deeply trapped in our internal issues we have no time to focus on external affairs. He said that Pakistan should not isolate itself diplomatically that Pakistan should move ahead step by step and press should be independent and dictation should be avoided.
While talking about the tri-nations consensus between India, Pakistan and China he said that
this concept is similar to the concept of the Middle East and why China should be involved in bilateral affairs. This shows that our policies and strategies are still not clear. However, any affair with India will have to be direct and we have to deal with India directly. No third party should play a role. There should be direct negotiations between India and Pakistan. Pakistan has always asked for arbitration while India has always stressed that no third-party intervention. The middle way is that people's benefits should not be ignored and the state should provide relief and welfare to the people.
India will be the focus of US diplomacy in 2023
In his podcast, Dr Qamar Cheema said that US administration Pointman for Indo-Pacific Kurt Campbell wrote a book The Pivot The Future of American Statecraft in Asia which talks about the US growing involvement in the Indo-Pacific.
Dr. Qamar said that during a discussion with a think tank Centre for Strategic Studies and International Relations, it was discussed that in 2023 India would be a key focus of American Diplomacy according to Indo-Pacific Forecast 2023 and along with this it is the desire of the US that India should play a key role in the region.
Dr. Qamar also mentioned the visit of the Foreign Minister Mr. Bilawal Bhutto Zardari to Washington DC for the G77 meeting and now he is also planning another visit in the coming month. It is important to understand why Indians go to America and why Pakistanis go to America.
Kurt M. Campbell who wrote The Pivot: The Future of American Statecraft in Asia was basically appointed as the pinpoint for Indo-Pacific and Asia by Hillary Clinton while she was in the state department and now he is back as democrats are back in power. Kurt M. Campbell is talking about the proper model of alliances like bilateral and multilateral agreements. He knows what is going to happen in 2023 for example Hiroshima summit in Japan, QUAD Summit in Australia in May, G20 summit in New Delhi in September and president Joe Biden will visit India for this summit and the Asia Pacific Economic Cooperation meeting will happen in San Francisco in November.
He was of the view that it is apprehended that India is heavily dependent on Russian arms and 80% of weapons are of Russian origin "According to a report by Stimson Centre. In past India was not the key focus of American policy but now it has become an important player in American foreign policy. He said that American missions in the region can not be served without the support of India and it has all the key ingredients through which America can kick start its ambitions in the region.
He was of the view that the role that the US wants India to play is to counter China. Anything that is happening is to counter China. He said on the other hand China is going to the countries which are politically vulnerable and have weak economies. This is how China grow its inroads in other countries. Now America wants to diversify its ties with India because they do not want India to depend upon China or Russia. Along with this, they also do not want the Russian military supplies to India to be stopped.
He said that the now US believes that war with China is imminent and they want to enhance ties with India and want all like-minded nations to be together. It is important to note that in the recent visit of Donald Do Assistant Secretary of state and he spoke against China and a strong reaction came from the Chinese side. Moreover, the visit of Donald Do was also planned for Pakistan but we could not receive him because that has become difficult. There is no opportunity for Pakistan.
There is also speculation that India is trying to become the voice of the Global South and Americans will definitely push for this because of US Strategic Multi alignment.
When Indians talk about multilateralism they want that America should share their power with them.
This voice of the Global South is basically bringing the people of Africa, Asia and South America together to avoid China from becoming the leader of the global South.
He said that America is doing exactly the same thing with India that it has done with Europe after World War II and this is a World War II moment for India. This is the rise of India but India will not immediately face the consequences which Europe faced and paid a heavy price. He said that there is uncertainty in the international system and the future of this region is quite unpredictable. Because they all talk about this in the larger picture Indians also believe that the US is also trapping India and this will also cause problems with China.
He said that there is an opinion that in the Ukraine crisis, India has a muted response and they are not talking about it openly. In December there was summit a US Africa summit in the US which was held after eight years the US has pledged 55 billion dollars in Africa and intends to invest in the coming three-four years. Compared to this Pakistani economy is crippling and in dire need, of money and the US has only pledged 2 or 3 billion dollars for the next few years which is very low.
In short, the US wants to counter the influence of China in Africa and India and the US are going to supplement each other in order to strengthen their position in Africa. India also believes that it is against imperialism and against China’s new colonialism and solidarity with the global South.
As a Pakistani, Dr Qamar Cheema wants that there should be discussions and inquiries within Pakistan regarding the current situation. There should be a focus that why Pakistan is not progressing while India and China are rapidly progressing. In 2023 it is believed that India will grow 50 faster than China. Why Pakistan cannot do this?
He said that India is also moving towards defence indigenization and now India will enhance its defence ties with India. As India and Japan already going to hold joint fighter drills.
In order to strengthen the Air Defence cooperation, the Indian Air Force (IAF) and Japan Air Self Defence Force (JASDF) are executing their very first joint venture in air exercise in Japan, known as Veer Guardian 2023. Indian contingent participating will include four Su-30 MKI, two C-17 & one IL-78 aircraft, while the JASDF will be participating with four F-2 & four F-15 aircraft. Although India and Japan have defence imbalances and they are in the right position to do so with US, France, and Australia etc in which India SU14 MQ fighter jets and C17 transport plans are included.
Keeping in mind this situation in coming years Pakistan will become irrelevant and in order to remain relevant a proper study should be conducted in Pakistan by the defence and other stakeholders that where Pakistan stands in terms of defence indigenization and how much we have to compete in the coming future. The main aim is to maintain strategic deterrence.
He concluded by saying that the US is putting a lot of money and resources into India both politically and economically to serve its purpose in Indo -pacific as mentioned by Kurd Campbell also.
India's Effort to lead Global South: Is Pakistan Out of Strategic Calculus?
India's Effort to lead Global South: Is Pakistan Out of Strategic Calculus?
In Pakistan, India is mostly discussed as a traditional rival but India's gains in the political and economic landscape have given it strategic and diplomatic mileage on a global stage. Pakistan is preoccupied with its domestic politics and Pakistan's decision-making apparatus is struggling to establish who is who in the system.
Global south as an idea and term was raised back in 1955 at the Conference of African and Asian states in Bandung, Indonesia. This term has been raised in global conferences, academic and diplomatic circles but Chinese and Indian leadership raised this frequently. China and India have different views when it comes to the global south and how their engagement shall be with the global south. China wants that its idea of comprehensive growth, comprehensive security, and shared growth shall be taken seriously for Common Growth in the Global south.
India talks of reformed multilateralism, rule of law, and an equitable international system. India blames Europe and the western world for its euro centrism and absence of perspectives from the global south and India. Although the global south is a big area that includes Asia, Africa, Oceania, South America, and other regions outside Europe and North America. The global significance and seriousness of India increased when it crossed the United Kingdom and emerged as the fifth-largest economy and its help of vaccines during COVID 19.
For making itself relevant in global north India is challenging multilateralism and it believes it cannot make space in the global north because it's in the southern half of the world, it's not industrially rich, socially stable, and has illiberal democracy. But since the only way to have an impact in a rules-based international system is to raise a voice for the global south while sitting among great powers. So this will give India value in countries of the south which are not economically stable as India and they are not as relevant in the West as India.
Indian plan to be a leader of the global south is a challenge for Pakistan because Pakistan has historically kept its position which is not to let India be a regional policeman. Is Pakistan out of regional strategic calculous as there was a time when political leaders used to sketch the country's future to lead Asia as Asian Tiger. At this moment when India is aspiring to lead the global south, Pakistan is fighting a war for its survival where 75 % chances of financial default of Pakistan are imminent as foreign exchange reservices are around $ 8 billion which are loans from international financial institutions and friendly countries. Political instability is on the rise where former PM Imran khan blamed the military establishment and the United States for the successful no-confidence vote against him. Pakistan's political elite and media wasted weeks speculating who shall be the next army chief which have been appointed recently.
The political and military elite have stopped looking regionally and globally because of internal disagreements and political uncertainties. International trips of Politian and the military are to make sure how to secure money for the balance of payments and save Pakistan from financial default. Pakistan's national security doctrine and the former hybrid government decided to move away from geostrategic competition and look for geo-economics. Unfortunately, there is no political consensus and serious debate on how to make it a priority and materialize this shift in foreign policy.
Pakistani government officials and the strategic community are not even discussing Indian engagement in multilateral forums like QUAD, I2U2, and how the US is making India a global partner. Pakistan's foreign policy in previous months was to repair its ties with the US and the western world although Pakistan kept supporting the world in the Afghan war and in withdrawal. Indian efforts to be a leader of the global south are not even part of a discussion in Pakistan's strategic community and narrative on India is either controlled or too patriotic to be critical. Pakistan's economic challenges and Indian pressure on Pakistan to isolate at UNSC are so impactful that Pakistan talks with China are for its financial support, and loan readjustment rather than making a strategic outlook on how to counter with China India's leadership in the global south. What are Pakistan's options if India develops its strong credentials as a leader of the global south politically and economically?
Pakistan has raised the voice of people of a global south through a spectrum of climate injustice. $100 Billion was pledged by the global north for climate change adaptation for the developing world and Pakistan is waiting for some of these funds as millions got displaced in Pakistan because of the 2022 floods. Pakistan's ailing economy needs a financial boost and for this leadership must not politicize these funds. In the past foreign aid , financial support, and foreign direct investment has been used for political benefits and electoral campaigns so Pakistan shall not politicize financial support related to climate change.
About Writer:
Dr Qamar Cheema is academic and appears as strategic and political analyst on National and International Media
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